Chinese President Xi Jinping’s absence from key events, including the BRICS Summit in Rio de Janeiro on July 6–7, 2025, has ignited a firestorm of speculation about his potential resignation and a possible regime change within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). As the leader who has consolidated near-absolute power since 2012, Xi’s reduced visibility—coupled with military purges, institutional reforms, and whispers of factional rivalries—has fueled global chatter about whether China’s “Chairman of Everything” is on his way out. While these rumors, amplified by media reports. Here’s a clear breakdown of the situation as of July 9, 2025.
Why the Buzz?
Xi’s absence from the BRICS Summit, his first in 12 years as China’s paramount leader, was officially attributed to a “scheduling conflict,” with Premier Li Qiang representing China instead. This followed a notable 22-day absence from the front page of People’s Daily (June 2–24, 2025) and only two video appearances since June 4, during meetings with Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong and New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon. His July 7 appearance in Yangquan City, Shanxi, laying a wreath at a martyrs’ memorial, was tightly framed and lacked the grandeur typical of his public outings, failing to quell speculation.
Key Factors Driving Resignation Speculation
Several developments have contributed to the narrative of a potential power shift:
- Institutional Reforms: On June 30, 2025, Xi chaired a Politburo meeting that introduced regulations to standardize CCP decision-making bodies, seen by some as a move to delegate authority and possibly prepare for a power transition by the 21st Party Congress in 2027. An analyst told the South China Morning Post that these rules might regulate bodies during a “key time for power transition,” though others argue Xi is simply focusing on larger issues.
- Military Purges: Xi’s anti-corruption campaign has removed over a dozen PLA generals, including Miao Hua from the Central Military Commission in November 2024. Unlike earlier purges targeting rivals, these involved Xi loyalists, leading some, like @RodDMartin, to suggest internal challenges to Xi’s authority. Others, however, see this as Xi tightening control over the military.
- Factional Resurgence: The re-emergence of the Communist Youth League faction, tied to former President Hu Jintao, has raised eyebrows. Figures like Wang Yang, a reformist technocrat, and Hu Chunhua, once sidelined by Xi, are rumored as potential successors. A May 2024 Politburo meeting reportedly involved CCP elders discussing Xi’s leadership, with 12 accusations raised against him.
- Health Rumors: Unverified reports, like those from IDNFinancials and X posts, claim Xi suffered a stroke, supported by a photo from August 2024 showing a scar on his skull. However, Reuters debunked similar claims in July 2024, confirming images were from March 2024 and lacked credible evidence of a stroke.
- Symbolic Slights: The omission of Xi’s father, Xi Zhongxun, from the naming of the Guanzhong Revolutionary Memorial Hall in Shaanxi, a break from tradition, has been interpreted as a sign of diminishing symbolic authority.
- Domestic and Global Pressures: China faces 15% youth unemployment, a stagnant real estate sector, and trade tensions with the U.S., particularly after a July 2025 call with President Donald Trump. Xi’s absence from the BRICS Summit, where India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi played a prominent role, may reflect a strategic retreat amid these challenges.
Historical Context: Past Resignation Calls
Rumors of Xi’s resignation are not new. In 2016, an anonymous open letter from “loyal Communist Party members” demanded Xi step down, citing his centralization of power and economic missteps. The letter led to 20 detentions and the disappearance of four journalists, showing the CCP’s intolerance for such dissent. In 2022, social media buzz about a military coup and Xi’s house arrest, fueled by claims of flight cancellations and PLA movements, was swiftly debunked. These precedents suggest that while speculation can gain traction, it often lacks substance.
A 2024 open letter, shared by @jenniferzeng97, listed 28 alleged errors by Xi, from economic stagnation to foreign policy blunders, urging his resignation. Such calls, often from dissidents or overseas commentators, face swift censorship in China, making their impact limited.
Is Xi Really Resigning?
Despite the rumors, several factors argue against an imminent resignation:
- CCP Structure: Removing a general secretary requires a Central Committee plenum or Party Congress, and most current members are Xi loyalists appointed in 2022. His 2018 abolition of presidential term limits and third term as General Secretary in 2022 signal an intent to rule beyond 2027.
- Control Mechanisms: Xi’s anti-corruption campaigns and “Xi Jinping Thought” in the party constitution reinforce his dominance. Purges may reflect his efforts to maintain military loyalty rather than a loss of control.
- Strategic Absence: Analysts like Kerry Brown, cited in The Indian Express, note no clear signs of discord among central or provincial leaders, suggesting Xi’s absence may be deliberate, aligning with a “lie low” strategy. A senior China analyst told India Today that Xi’s reduced visibility could reflect global distractions, like U.S. tariff wars.
However, the National Interest and insiders like Cai Shenkun claim Xi may announce retirement in fall 2025, with Wang Yang as a reformist successor, citing a deal to protect his family. These claims remain unverified, and the CCP’s “black box” nature makes confirmation difficult.
What’s Likely Happening?
The most plausible explanation combines strategic delegation with internal management. Xi may be stepping back to address domestic challenges—economic woes, military loyalty, or factional tensions—while testing the loyalty of subordinates like Li Qiang. Health issues, though possible, lack credible evidence. The Politburo’s new regulations suggest Xi is institutionalizing power to ensure stability, possibly preparing for a controlled transition by 2027, but not necessarily resigning now.
The resurgence of Hu Jintao’s allies and military purges indicate factional maneuvering, but Xi’s grip remains firm. A Reddit user on r/ADVChina aptly noted, “I’d have like four euros” for every Xi resignation rumor, reflecting their recurring, often exaggerated nature.
Global Implications
If Xi were to resign, it could reshape China’s policies on trade, Taiwan, and regional relations, potentially easing tensions with the West if a reformist like Wang Yang takes over. However, a power struggle could destabilize China’s economy and global markets. For now, India, the U.S., and other nations are watching closely, with India particularly concerned about border tensions.
The Bottom Line
While Xi Jinping’s absence and the surrounding rumors have sparked talk of regime change, the evidence for an imminent resignation is inconclusive. His strategic absences, military purges, and institutional reforms suggest a leader navigating challenges, not necessarily exiting. Investors and observers should monitor the Fourth Plenary Session in August 2025 and the 2027 Party Congress for clearer signals. For real-time updates, checking posts on X or consulting a SEBI-registered financial advisor for investment decisions is advisable, but always treat unverified claims with skepticism.
Last Updated on: Wednesday, July 9, 2025 2:11 pm by Rishi Akkaraju | Published by: Rishi Akkaraju on July 9, 2025 2:11 pm | News Categories: WORLD
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